The U.S. housing market will hit bottom by July, and grow by 6.5 percent in 2009, according to two top officials with the National Association of Homebuilders.
New home sales should reach their bottom price by March, but condos are a still a way off, the association's chief executive and the top economist said.
Predictions of a bottom are likely to come frequently in 2008, and prompt a number of prospective buyers into the market to look for product. This is likely to have a negative effect on buyers as the increased number of lookers could boost the optimism of sellers who can afford to hold their prices steady.
It is important to consider how the bottom will be determined. Watch for three consecutive months of both increased home sales and increased median sales prices. When that happens, that's the bottom.
The problem with that is, the bottom won't be declared until a month later because of data tabulation. In other words, the bottom will be declared effectively four months after the rebound has actually begun.
Peter Zalewski is a principal with the consulting company Condo Vultures® LLC and a licensed real estate broker with Condo Vultures® Realty LLC. Peter can be reached at 305-865-5629 or by email at peter@condovultures.com. Be sure to sign up for Peter’s weekly Market Intelligence Report.
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