The South Florida residential real estate market is at bottom and likely to experience some appreciation within a year, the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said.
"I think the prices have already pretty much bottomed in the South Florida market," Yun said. "The rest of the country is more difficult to say but I think here, given the buyers, the prices have already bottomed in Florida."
Yun made the declaration (Watch The Video) on June 11 during a keynote address to a lunch crowd of the International Real Estate Congress and Expo. The event was hosted by the Realtors Association of Greater Miami and the Beaches at the Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables.
Yun's keynote address preceded a panel discussion on the South Florida real estate market with Peter Zalewski, founder of Condo Vultures® LLC; Rei Mesa of Prudential Florida Realty; Oliver Ruiz of Fortune International Realty; and Ron Shuffield of EWM.
Given the growing number of residential deals occurring in South Florida despite no readily available financing, Yun projects that today's buyers could actually realize some home price appreciation as soon as next year when credit is expected to be available once again.
"Soon you will reach the point of equilibrium where home prices begin to show growth," Yun said. "It is always difficult to precisely predict. I think that many people who are buying today in this month - June of 2009 - if they look back a year from now in June 2010, I think many people will see that they have actually gained in equity."
Yun cautioned that the South Florida market conditions - a diverse community with limited developable land, attractive weather, and an international appeal - give the region an advantage over many other areas in the United States.
"There will be some premium attached to Miami, in relation to say Atlanta, Birmingham, and others," Yun said. "So the price point in Miami will be much stronger when compared to other, say, southern states across the country or even say the rest of America. For that reason, I am very hopeful that currently it is an undervalued market.
"Buyers are recognizing [that]. Sales up about 100 percent from one year before."
Yun's comments come a month after national real estate analyst Jack McCabe of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Fla., told CondoVultures.com that he thinks South Florida residential prices are within 15 percent of the bottom.
McCabe, who began warning of a Florida housing bust in 2005, projects the South Florida residential real estate bottom will be reached by the summer of 2010.
"I think the worst is behind us, but I still believe we have another 10 to 15 percent drop because of the unemployment and the foreclosures depressing prices, and the amount of inventory we have yet to absorb," McCabe told CondoVultures.com.
Peter Zalewski of Condo Vultures® can be reached at 800-750-0517 or by email at peter@condovultures.com. Don't forget to sign up for our weekly Market Intelligence Report™ for detailed condo reports. Looking for a property at a deep discount? You are encouraged to take a peek at the Vultures Database™ or our Video Gallery. Our new books, the Official Condo Buyers Guide to Miami™ , Miami's Great Condo Crash: A Chronicle of the Boom and Bust™ , and First-Time Home Buyers Guide To South Florida™ are now available. Want to see every foreclosure filed in South Florida since 2007? Check out our Foreclosure Database™.
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